The Pilot’s Compass: AI Is Too Big To Fail
It is time to re-think what success looks like
Get clear direction with The Pilot's Compass: freely available, opinion-based research notes from Pilot Research, offered via our website and LinkedIn
AI Investment Is Not Just Money And Is Multiplied By Fear Of Failure
Recently I said on a podcast, “I’m getting ‘too big to fail’ vibes around AI’.” The two obvious thoughts may be:
Tom Pringle talking about “vibes” makes me wonder if it’s actually a deepfake; and,
Really? It’s not like AI is the same as a bank, the kind of organisation which the phrase is most often associated with, if it doesn't work well… it’s not like the economy stops working… right?
On the first point, I can assure - but not prove - it isn’t. On the second, I think there is simply too much invested in AI to allow it not to become “successful”. Let’s take a look at what’s invested in AI:
Money - like Dr. Evil, I shall raise a pinky finger and say, “... one billion dollars!” Except, you need to add many hundreds of billions of dollars, euros, pounds, and so on. The cheques (yes, I’m British) written against investment in AI startups, infrastructure, product development, and organisational projects sum to unimaginably huge numbers. A trillion dollars? Sure, I’ll see your trillion and (entirely guess) it’s more if you include planned and announced spend.
Reputations - reputational capital is important, for some it may even be at least as important as financial capital is. A lot of senior software executives have taken to the digital megaphone to announce that the age of AI is upon us and its impact will be fundamental on both our economies and societies. It’s not just tech execs and investors though, politicians, consultants, analysts, and that guy you see at the pub sometimes are all (fairly) certain that AI is going to remould the foundations of our economic and social fabric.
Effort - take the financial and reputational investments and add the volume of human effort and power already ploughed into AI and you have another significant sunk cost. People, myself included, are learning by using and taking courses to understand how AI tools may be applied to work. We want payback for this effort, be it for personal use or corporate advancement.
The opinion I’m offering on AI investment is that it is more than simply money. Put otherwise: Investment in AI = Money + Reputations + Effort. I suggest that calculation is taken and multiplied by a very difficult (impossible?) to quantify variable: fear of failure.
Hopefully, at this point in our conversation you will at least, if not agree with, what I’m suggesting: AI technologies have to be seen as successful, even if that means we have to think about "success" a little differently. The stakes are simply too high.
Step Back To Realise Value And What It Means For You
Hype? Bubble? Demonstrable Value? All, and more. Why choose when as a friend of mine once said, “Two things can be true at the same time.” In this case, I think it’s more than two things, there are obviously multiple sources of value in AI technologies. I don’t have to rely on studies and data points to support this much beyond my own, immediate experience. While limited, that experience has proven that the everyday of my “knowledge work” at least AI can be a very useful time saver when it comes to collating research, or creating an image to support a website post.
What of AI’s potential beyond the day-to-day of productivity, such as healthcare advancements and scientific breakthroughs? Undoubtedly possibilities that go beyond the modest scope of this note, but here I’m focussed on everyday business value, not re-writing the social and economic fabric of our world. Does it mean I’m missing the point of AI? I will freely admit, maybe yes, but given the oxygen-out-of-room-sucking effects of AI on investments of money, reputation, and effort in alternatives, the pressure to experience short term benefits is close to explosion point in my view.
Therefore the question that hangs in the air for me, at least, in its current state will it repay its total investment? Currently, I have to say, “probably not.”
This is not an anti-AI tirade. I could offer such a rant based on my love of science fiction, its often persuasive predictions, and my fondness for what I like to call techno-philosopy. But forget all of that, I believe two things need to happen for AI to be successful in the near term:
We must turn down the heat - some of the white heat of expectation that pervades AI needs to be removed. The greater the amplification, the greater the expectation. While I don’t doubt it’s possible for AI technologies to deliver this in the long(er) term; although we may not be dead (sorry, J.M. Keynes), the fog of uncertainty grows ever-thicker the further we look out.
Understand what meaningful value from AI means to you - let’s focus on the things we can see at least somewhat ahead. Value means a lot of different things to different people, of course. Investigating what it means in the context you find yourself in, be it corporate, charity, governmental, or personal is key. What can you see and achieve (nearly) here and now with AI?
Whatever Direction Your Compass Points…
Thank you for reading this Pilot’s Compass note. It will be available on both Pilot Research's website and LinkedIn. Is it possible to tackle this subject in under a thousand words? Of course not. My hope is that it’s brief enough to take the time to read and - agree or disagree - it perhaps proved somewhat thought-provoking. I welcome your comments, feedback, and ideas at tom@pilotresearch.co.uk
